The Culture of Transactional Politics in Indonesia's Gubernatorial Elections Since Reformation

Economic Voting in Gubernatorial Elections

There is a large literature on economic voting in the United States, which shows that the economy matters in presidential and congressional elections. Puzzlingly, however, the state politics literature has failed to find clear evidence for economic voting in gubernatorial elections. In this study, I use population-based datasets of state and county-level economic conditions from 1969-2016 to ex...

Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections.

We showed 10-second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants' predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state fixed effects. I...

Gubernatorial Coattail Effects in State Legislative Elections

Are Voters Rational? Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections

Standard agency theory suggests that rational voters will vote to re-elect politicians who deliver favorable outcomes. A second implication is that rational voters will not support a politician because of good outcomes unrelated to the politician’s actions. Specifically, rational voters should try to filter signal from noise, both in order to avoid electing incompetent, but lucky politicians, a...

The Gubernatorial Coattails Effect: Federalism and Congressional Elections in Brazil

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